Apple

[strife]

LinkGoogle buys Nest Inc.

[Jakensama]

Steve Jobs invented the thermostat.

[Grieve]

From what Fadell said about the deal, it sounds like Apple was interested as well, but Google were willing to payup a lot more. $3.2b for a company that makes thermostats and smoke detectors, even if they are connected, seems like an awful lot...

Apple earnings in two more weeks. I think (hope) they are going to be really big (with raised guidance), but who knows.

[Jakensama]

Maybe a sign into pushing into other integrated home electronic devices, I assume the horridly antiquated home security industry with its 1980s technology would be a future candidate?

Although a third of Nest's employees are ex-Apple folk, so time for a bit of housekeeping..

[Slamz]

I got this Belkin plug that lets me measure wattage and turn that plug on and off remotely, from my phone (from anywhere in the world). I have my space heater plugged into it so that whenever I go, "Shit, I forgot to turn off that heater", I can just turn it off from my phone.

I wouldn't have bought one but it was free. It did get me thinking about the possible value of an interconnected home that you can control entirely with your smartphone. I thought about the Nest stuff but didn't buy into it (yet).

I have a Google Chromecast that I use for Netflix. I can control that from my phone.

I'm tempted to get a Belkin plug for my bluetooth speaker... I leave my phone paired with it and just turn it off when I don't want to use it. When I turn it on, the phone sees it, connects to it and routes my audio to the speaker. If I had another Belkin plug I could the speaker on from my phone.


It starts off as silly (and expensive) trinkets but at some point I'll have the ability to control everything in my house with a sensible phone interface.

I think that's what Google sees and is headed towards. They may be beating Apple to the punch because Apple does not seem to be innovating at all anymore.


Plus if Apple did it, all their shit would have to be proprietary. I'd be plugging my 4-prong Apple Speaker into my Apple Socket to play iTunes songs with...

[Grieve]

Maybe a sign into pushing into other integrated home electronic devices, I assume the horridly antiquated home security industry with its 1980s technology would be a future candidate?

Bit more creepy than that. Nest technology tracks your habits, where you are in the house, what you are doing and so on. Think that might be useful for a company that gets most of their income from advertising? Google already tracks what you do and search for online, so it can target ads at you. I suspect eventually Google will know exactly what you are doing, how often you are doing it, and who you are doing it with, on or offline, and will bombard you with ads accordingly.

Although a third of Nest's employees are ex-Apple folk, so time for a bit of housekeeping..

Ex-Apple folk like Andy Rubin, who created Android? In fact ex Apple folk started Palm, TiVo, LinkedIn, Flipboard, Pandora, Inkling, StockTwits, and a zillion other big names. Obviously Apple inspires genius.

[strife]

Obviously Apple inspires genius.

Obviously Apple is good enough to get smart people to work there, but not good enough to keep them.

[Grieve]

I got this Belkin plug that lets me measure wattage and turn that plug on and off remotely, from my phone (from anywhere in the world). I have my space heater plugged into it so that whenever I go, "Shit, I forgot to turn off that heater", I can just turn it off from my phone.

I have a bluetooth lightbulb that I can control from my phone, including changing the hue to a zillion different colors. Fun for a couple of hours, haven't used it since.

But yes, "the internet of things" was the big theme at CES this year. There's going to be a million examples of this stuff coming out this year.

I have a Google Chromecast that I use for Netflix. I can control that from my phone.

I have a Chromecast too, but again I haven't used it since the first day I got it. Already have four AppleTVs, which do it all better.

Almost all smart TVs and blu-ray players can be controlled from smartphone apps these days, as well as things like Chromecast and AppleTV. The AppleTV app is a lifesaver, since the kids keep losing/hiding the regular remotes. Also I can turn off the TV in the basement from upstairs and put a message on the screen telling them to come up for dinner.

I think that's what Google sees and is headed towards. They may be beating Apple to the punch because Apple does not seem to be innovating at all anymore.

Plus if Apple did it, all their shit would have to be proprietary. I'd be plugging my 4-prong Apple Speaker into my Apple Socket to play iTunes songs with...

Yeah yeah yeah...

Google and Apple are fighting in more and more areas every day. Apple started a big "iOS in the car" push a couple of years back, and now Google just announced a bunch of partnerships for Android in the car. They both make smartphone and tablets now that Google owns Motorola, they are fighting for the living room with Chromecast/GoogleTV and AppleTV, and they are both doing wearables (iWatch and Google Glass).

I think Apple should go into search and hit Google where it really hurts. Everyone poured scorn on Apple Maps (yes I'm looking at you guys), but it's had a huge impact on Google. They lost 23m users in the US alone, as the Guardian discussed a couple of months back.

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/20...hone-users

Just imagine if 10s of millions of people moved from Google Search to a new Apple search. Earnings would be nuked, stock would go into free fall, and suddenly all the money for those "moon shots" would dry up. Losing all those wealthy, smart, big spending Apple users, and keeping only those poor, socially inferior, of substandard intelligence, and generally bad smelling Android users...that would have to hurt! :wink:

[Breand]

The "next big thing" Google and Apple will be fighting over is home automation. It's the one thing that still has a lot of room for tech growth. Home electronics are due for a huge leap in tech. The " it will show up eventually" Apple TV will be built to act as a central hub for all automated control of electronics in your home. And yes the potential from habit tracking there is HUGE.

[Grieve]

Interesting...Google just added an app to the iOS App Store that let's you watch/listen to Google Play content on your iPhone or iPad.

Odd decision - I can't see many iOS users wanting to buy stuff on Google Play, but it does make it much easier for Android users to change over to iOS and keep their stuff. Why would you encourage people to buy an iPhone?

I'm sure there's some evil Google ulterior motive to it, though. Maybe they are just hoping people who move to the "good side" will still keep on buying from Google Play. And Google does still make more money from iOS users than Android users...

[strife]

surprised Apple allowed it. I wish google would do that on Windows RT We got a surface(because I got one for $200 and wasn't paying $400 for a 10" android) and the only issue with it is lack of apps...

[strife]

Google developing glucose monitoring contact lens

Link

Seems like an apparent difference in the companies... Apple sits on it's profits while google actually uses it's money for something useful.

[Breand]

Google developing glucose monitoring contact lens

Link

Seems like an apparent difference in the companies... Apple sits on it's profits while google actually uses it's money for something useful.

basically why Apple stock is so undervalued right now. No one knows what the heck they are doing. Sitting on an asston of cash, and no whisperings of new products other than the TV.

[Grieve]

But you could argue that presents an opportunity. No one is expecting anything of them, so get the stock while it's cheap.

I'd say there are three things that are almost a lock for this year:

o Large phones (supposedly a 4.7" and a 5.5")
o An "iPad Pro" (12.9", likely with more notebook-like functionality, aimed at business)
o An iWatch (in two sizes, for men/women)

I doubt the new phones/iPad will be out before September. Watch may be earlier, but it sounds like they've run into some technical issues.

TV is a wildcard. I'm sure they have other stuff going on in the bunkers as well.

Anyway, stock is probably flat until earnings now. Unless the weekend news out of China is really good/really bad. NYT reported tepid interest last night. Fortune posted pics of lines and crowds across China. We'll have to see who is right.

[strife]

But you could argue that presents an opportunity. No one is expecting anything of them, so get the stock while it's cheap.

I'd say there are three things that are almost a lock for this year:

o Large phones (supposedly a 4.7" and a 5.5")
o An "iPad Pro" (12.9", likely with more notebook-like functionality, aimed at business)
o An iWatch (in two sizes, for men/women)

I doubt the new phones/iPad will be out before September. Watch may be earlier, but it sounds like they've run into some technical issues.

TV is a wildcard. I'm sure they have other stuff going on in the bunkers as well.

Anyway, stock is probably flat until earnings now. Unless the weekend news out of China is really good/really bad. NYT reported tepid interest last night. Fortune posted pics of lines and crowds across China. We'll have to see who is right.

All boring and stuff others have already done.

[Jakensama]

Steve jobs invented the 4.7" phone.

[Grieve]

All boring and stuff others have already done.

iPod - others had already done MP3 players
iPhone - others had already done smartphones
iPad - others had already done tablets
App Store - others had done app stores

It's not who does it first, it's who does it right

[Jakensama]

The key with the bigger phone size is that apple was actively denigrating the idea while they were being surpassed by other phone manufacturers in a field that there was obviously a demand for (usefully sized phones).

[Grieve]

The key with the bigger phone size is that apple was actively denigrating the idea while they were being surpassed by other phone manufacturers in a field that there was obviously a demand for (usefully sized phones).

You mean Steve Jobs denigrated it, and in case you hadn't noticed, he hasn't denigrated anything recently seeing how he's been dead for over 2 years.

Even then, his point was that people wanted phones they could comfortably use in one hand, which is still the case for many people. Which is why I'm sure they'll keep the iPhone 5 form factor around too. I'm sure the Chinese will lap up its big brother, though.

[Jakensama]

His point was specifically that "no one was going to buy" a bigger phone. Great foresight, and but for his arrogance apple probably could have rolled out a product there was a huge market for and been in a far better position right now, instead of giving android years to grow that niche while they just sat on their laurels. <!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.engadget.com/2010/07/16/jobs-no-ones-going-to-buy-a-big-phone/">http://www.engadget.com/2010/07/16/jobs ... big-phone/</a><!-- m -->

Just like they are beating down the door for the current one... Shit is priced way too highly for the vast majority of chinese who can get a phone thats only slightly worse for far less.

<!-- m --><a class="postlink" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/18/technology/apples-latest-foray-into-china-gets-a-weak-response.html?hpw&rref=business">http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/18/techn ... f=business</a><!-- m -->

Even the pictures in fortune look less crowded than an average shanghai supermarket or mediamarkt. I'm sure the slew of apple shill bloggers have already drafted myriad apologetics about how these are all signs of apple's inevitable dominance of asia though.

Incidentally my google stock is at 1150.

[Grieve]

It's not really news that Jobs was often wrong about stuff. He was totally against an app store, for example. I'd say it's a good quality for a company to evolve their thinking over time.

And you are beating a dead horse on the cheap phone thing. They are not interested in selling the most phones, they've said that 100 times. There is always a long of hand-wringing about it from the tech press and analysts, but let's fact it...they are all pretty clueless. If Apple did release a phone for $300 without contract, the same analysts would be saying Apple is done for because their margins have gone to hell. Why aren't analysts demanding that BMW release a $13k car to compete with Hyundai?

Yes, Google is doing very well...from it's search business! It makes no money directly from Android, and in fact is losing a shitload of money from it's purchase of Motorola. It makes more money in mobile search from iOS than Android. I also still think Apple will pass it again (in share price - it's already ahead in market cap).

[Grieve]

I'll tell you what, being an Apple cultist isn't for the faint hearted.

Amazon announces another quarter of zero or negative profit? The stock shoots up another 10%!

Apple announces rev and EPS beating expectations (by 45 cents in the case of EPS), all time record of iPhones (51 million vs 47.8 last year), all time record of iPads (26 million vs 22.9 last year), 17% growth YoY in mac sales, and...the stock is down almost 6% after hours. Why? Because analysts had decided that the iPhone number should have been 55 million.

This happens every time, I should just learn to short before earnings.

[Jakensama]

Thats what you get for gambling. Their profit remained flat from last year, and when you are gambling your money on speculation that has little basis in reality... As fundamentally superior a company as Google is, theres been nothing much to justify their 30% increase over the past 3 months either.

[Grieve]

Actually EPS was up 5% YoY. That might not seem like a lot compared to the 50% jumps there have been in the past, but every other mobile phone company has posted a year over year DROP, including HTC, LG, Blackberry, Nokia, and even Samsung ($8.18b last year to $7.7b this year). Obviously smartphone mania is dying down, in the West at least, but Apple is holding up better than any of the others.

Apple has a forward PE of 11 (less after today's rout) and a dividend of 2.20% (more after today), so it's not priced for growth.

Compare to GOOG (PE of 30), MSFT (PE of 1400), NFLX (PE of 206), FB (PE of 136), or TWTR (no PE, no profit!). Even MSFT, in the dying PC market, has a PE of 13.

Meanwhile AAPL just reported the 4th most profitable quarter of any company ever (with the higher ones all being oil companies). It also has the 5th, 6th and 8th of all time.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_lar...f_All_Time

[Breand]

It's all because there is no guidance. What good are massive profits if a company just sits on it? Why not a buyback? Why not a higher dividend? Why not gobble up other companies? When are the "big things" coming? Profits for the sake of sitting on them, does not a growth company make.