Apple

[Grieve]

There you go, that should please Slamz and Maul - they are returning money. Share buy back increased from $10b to $50b (wow, that's huge - 125 million shares at the current price!), and dividend up by 15% (now $11b a year).

Decent beat for this quarter on top and bottom line. Guidance for next Q was WAY below the street, though. We'll have to see how the market reacts when the stock starts trading again at 5pm - could go either way.

[Jakensama]

Pandora is similar to Netflix.

Don't you mean spotify? Pandora is garbage that won't even let you pick individual songs. Almost as bad as an apple product.

[Vanraw]

There you go, that should please Slamz and Maul - they are returning money. Share buy back increased from $10b to $50b (wow, that's huge - 125 million shares at the current price!), and dividend up by 15% (now $11b a year).

Decent beat for this quarter on top and bottom line. Guidance for next Q was WAY below the street, though. We'll have to see how the market reacts when the stock starts trading again at 5pm - could go either way.

Stock holders win. Wow what a concept. Now if we canmjust get them to do something about the other 80 billion....

[Grieve]

Stock holders win. Wow what a concept. Now if we canmjust get them to do something about the other 80 billion....

Your math is off. They have $144b in cash, and are returning $100b to shareholders over the next 2 years. I think it makes sense to keep just a little bit in reserve.

They did confirm no new products until the fall, so stock may be dead money for next few months.

[Grieve]

Pandora is similar to Netflix.

Don't you mean spotify? Pandora is garbage that won't even let you pick individual songs. Almost as bad as an apple product.

I prefer the random song approach, helps you discover new bands you might not hear otherwise.

Pandora is similar to Netflix in the sense that its the market leader, but with increasing competition. They have about 10 times the subscribers that Spotify does. I think they will both die off once the big guns jump into the game, though.

[Jakensama]

I prefer the random song approach, helps you discover new bands you might not hear otherwise.

Spotify has radio too. It is actually better since you can just pick a specific song you like and it will generate a random playlist based off it.

Pandora is similar to Netflix in the sense that its the market leader, but with increasing competition. They have about 10 times the subscribers that Spotify does. I think they will both die off once the big guns jump into the game, though.

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They only have a bit over 3x the music base, which is still good for them since Pandora has 1/20th the music that Spotify does, they don't allow rewinding like Spotify does, they don't allow offline playlists for your phone like Spotify does, etc.. But then again they have been around twice as long so I guess Spotify will be closing the gap soon. They have essentially eliminated the need to waste your time buying or pirating music.

Netflix, unlike Pandora, is at least creating original content. And I assume that universal streaming licenses are not super easy to just obtain. If apple (or whoever) decides they want to be the new Netflix they are going to have to have something up their sleeve other than "we're apple, everyone will just flock to us", since Netflix is pretty standard these days.

If anything, Pandora is a lot like apple - a company who had an original idea long ago and are just trying to fuck the cash cow of popularity and name recognition in the hopes that noone will notice the superior alternatives.

[Grieve]

Spotify has radio too. It is actually better since you can just pick a specific song you like and it will generate a random playlist based off it.

I installed it for the first time this week, mostly because my free Pandora quota for the month is already up. It's not bad! I'll probably switch between the two.

Netflix, unlike Pandora, is at least creating original content. And I assume that universal streaming licenses are not super easy to just obtain. If apple (or whoever) decides they want to be the new Netflix they are going to have to have something up their sleeve other than "we're apple, everyone will just flock to us", since Netflix is pretty standard these days.

Amazon is creating original content too - in fact they already have far more of their own stuff than Netflix does. I haven't watched any of it, though, so can't say how good or bad it is.

Netflix still has something to prove on that front as well. I'm watching House of Cards, and it's excellent stuff. But I also watched the first two episodes of Hemlock Grove, and it's pretty ropey.

If anything, Pandora is a lot like apple - a company who had an original idea long ago and are just trying to fuck the cash cow of popularity and name recognition in the hopes that noone will notice the superior alternatives.

I refuse to feed the troll.

[Grieve]

This is like saying that the apple orchard down the road is a direct competitor with Giant or Whole Foods. I mean yeah, I guess, for that one thing, but you're not going to quit going to the grocery store just because there's an apple orchard nearby that sells cheap apples. Amazon Prime has a very limited selection, doesn't seem to be getting much better and will, I think, always be a little frill on the side.

Ironic comparison, since I'd say Amazon is the grocery store to Netflix's orchard. Netflix gives just streaming, while Amazon Prime gives you a whole lot more.

Netflix has about 2X the selection of Amazon prime, which is significant, but hardly overwhelming. I notice they have a lot of the same big ticket items. Netflix has a lot of absolute unadulterated crap that I'm sure is just there to spike the numbers. I suspect Prime will eventually have more choice than Netflix.

Anyone with cash CAN do it, but they aren't. That's why Netflix remains unique. Apple COULD throw down a few billion and totally bust caps in Netflix and the streaming market but so far they haven't done so and quite possibly just aren't interested.

The fact that they are jumping into the Pandora ring makes me think they could do the same with movie streaming. Especially if they can't get the providers to play ball with iTV - they may decide they have to offer an all-you-can-eat service themselves.

Amazon probably COULD do it and might even have interests in that direction but they haven't.

Amazon IS doing it - they've been spending a fortune on buying streaming content and even have their own in-house studio to make original content.

Meanwhile, Apple has real direct competitors across every market they're in, with no apparent technical advantage that I can think of in any of those markets.

Their advantages are ecosystem, customer loyalty, quality, and customer service.

In fact AllThingsD just had an article on this today. Customer loyalty suggests Apple will retake the lead from Android in the US.

http://allthingsd.com/20130426/androids-...over-time/

I think one of Apple's real challenges today is their image. The whole company was built on the image of the underdog and counter-culture. There may be some irony in the fact that now that Apple is top-dog, the marketing campaign they used to build their company up no longer applies.

They have been top-dog in MP3 players for 12 years - how do you explain that?

Also, they are not top-dog in phones and never have been. They have never been the market share leader. Profits leader, yes, but never market share leader, even before Android took off.

They may need a new image and that's just one more big question on top of the already huge question mark of what they're going to do next.

I disagree - trying to change would be a big mistake. Just because Hyundai sells more cars than Mercedes, does that mean Mercedes should change?

[Jakensama]

Netflix still has something to prove on that front as well. I'm watching House of Cards, and it's excellent stuff. But I also watched the first two episodes of Hemlock Grove, and it's pretty ropey.

2 words - Arrested Development.

Anyways, they are going to have some dogs (haha) in the original programming department, but that is what is going to seperate someone from the competitors. Look at AMC, they went from a channel that showed like the same 15 movies all year to having 3 of the biggest shows on television. Honestly I think the movie format is going to become a dinosaur as TV shows are getting less censored and more easy to access, as you can tell a much better story over 10 hours than 2 hours, and being a new way to get those things out without nonsense like commercials is going to be huge if they can get a few more programs.

So to sum up, while I have problems with Netflix, replacing it is going to take more than "we have streaming stuff too".

[Slamz]

Ironic comparison, since I'd say Amazon is the grocery store to Netflix's orchard. Netflix gives just streaming, while Amazon Prime gives you a whole lot more.

Netflix has about 2X the selection of Amazon prime, which is significant, but hardly overwhelming. I notice they have a lot of the same big ticket items. Netflix has a lot of absolute unadulterated crap that I'm sure is just there to spike the numbers. I suspect Prime will eventually have more choice than Netflix.

I dunno. If you compare streaming to streaming and count Amazon's pay-per-view section they do have a good selection...Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, The Hobbit, etc. But it's $5 for an HD rental. Netflix has these same movies on Blu-ray. For $10/month you can have 1 Blu-ray disc out at a time. If you watch more than 1 movie per month you might as well just get the Netflix disc plan.

And you can watch the Netflix disc 10 times over a one week period if you want. Or more. Amazon's rentals are for 24 hours.

I just don't think the DRM or price demands of streaming movie rentals are where they need to be to compete with a service like Netflix. Company to company, all services included, Netflix is still a better deal with a better selection than any of their competitors, by a long shot. I really only use Amazon as a last resort. And I don't use iTunes at all because I don't like their interface. (Come to think of it, I don't think I have a way to play iTunes movies on my TV even if I bought them. I'm certainly not going to buy a piece of Apple crap just to play iTunes stuff. I'll keep using Amazon and Netflix.)

Amazon Prime selection is almost entirely crap. If you look at the movies you're into old James Bond movies and The Adventures of Tin-Tin by page 2. Amazon Prime is kinda like Redbox: check it once a month and see what hot new titles they picked up for the month. After that it's a lot of old crap. I still mainly keep it for the free 2-day shipping.


I think the bottom line is that if you cancel cable, you get Netflix first, fill in with Amazon and Hulu where needed and only use iTunes if you're already so infested by proprietary Apple stuff that you're trapped.

And really, Netflix is the reason I canceled cable. If anyone should worry about Netflix, it's cable companies.

I disagree - trying to change would be a big mistake. Just because Hyundai sells more cars than Mercedes, does that mean Mercedes should change?

Ask Oldsmobile.

[Vanraw]

Apple just needs more products. They have done a very good job with basically 3 product lines. Mac's, Iphone/pad/pod, iTunes.

The saddest part about Apple is that have been sitting on the largest cash position in history and haven't used it to create now products. Its really odd. They are turning into a present day microslop, with a revenue stream that's Is very good, but they stopped being a growth stock and stopped being an innovator. At least microslop took decades to get there where Apple has some how accomplished it in less than 10. (I'm speaking of the iPhone era).

[Grieve]

You mean they haven't ANNOUNCED any new products. That's very different. Tim Cook said on the earnings concall that they would be releasing new products in the fall and 2014 including "new product categories". It may take a few more months, but I suspect later this year you'll realize what they've been spending all that money on.

Also, throwing more money into R&D doesn't necessary mean more innovation and faster cycles. Microsoft spends 8 times as much as Apple on R&D, but that didn't stop Apple coming out with the iPod, iPhone, iPad, MacBook Air, etc during the same period when Microsoft came out with...Windows Vista, Windows 8 RT, the Kin, Zune, Windows Phone, the MSN Smart Watch, and 100 failed tablets.

[Breand]

A coworker and I were discussing the possibilities of just what an iTV might mean, which is much more than just a TV but would be the control center for a new home ecosystem of the 21st century. Everything could be controlled/automated in the house through it, voice activated ("Siri turn on the lights!") thermostat, complete home entertainment etc...If you think about it, the television is the one electronic device in your home that still feels antiquated, and needs a complete rethink.

Sure enough I googled Apple home ecosystem and came across this:

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[Jakensama]

All it will cost is $100,000 in proprietary wiring and special apple brand light bulbs that cost 8 times as much as a normal one.

[Grieve]

I think the "Smart Home" is definitely on the way, although we'll have to see if Apple or Google (or Samsung) get there first. More and more stuff is being wifi-enabled (e.g. that "Nest" thermostat created by the ex-Apple guy), and I can definitely see being to able to control it all from your TV. Samsung might have a head-start, since they already make a zillion appliances. Kind of cool to be able to check how much longer the oven has to go while roasting a chicken, or how much longer the washer or dryer has to go. Or maybe check the inventory of your fridge via the TV.

[Jakensama]

Kind of cool to be able to check how much longer the oven has to go while roasting a chicken, or how much longer the washer or dryer has to go. Or maybe check the inventory of your fridge via the TV.

Hah, just what we need, technology to remove the handful of reasons the average American has left to get their fat asses up off the couch.

[Vanraw]

You mean they haven't ANNOUNCED any new products. That's very different. Tim Cook said on the earnings concall that they would be releasing new products in the fall and 2014 including "new product categories". It may take a few more months, but I suspect later this year you'll realize what they've been spending all that money on.

Also, throwing more money into R&D doesn't necessary mean more innovation and faster cycles. Microsoft spends 8 times as much as Apple on R&D, but that didn't stop Apple coming out with the iPod, iPhone, iPad, MacBook Air, etc during the same period when Microsoft came out with...Windows Vista, Windows 8 RT, the Kin, Zune, Windows Phone, the MSN Smart Watch, and 100 failed tablets.

Note that my reference to Microsoft was their growth in 80s and 90s. They have innovate since. As for apple, Dude, fall of 2014?? A digger screen iphone 6 in 2q 2014?? A year Out?? I heard that and thought to my self.... Someone needs to be fired last week. It sounded like they got together 2 hours before earnings and made ship up.

Innovated products are coming in a year and a half..... The toast is burning.

[Slamz]

Smart homes are coming but your choices are going to be the Apple smart home which uses proprietary Apple components that don't work with anything else or the Samsung/HTC/Google/Motorola/Microsoft/Hyundai/Kawasaki smart home where if you don't like how Samsung does the light switch you can get the Google lightswitch and plug it into your Microsoft hub along with your Samsung TV and run the whole thing from your HTC phone.

Apple will prevent you from plugging their stuff into anything that's not Apple. If you don't like it, you'll have to replace the entire system.

[Grieve]

Haha, iPhone-controlled Bluetooth light bulbs already available for...$59 a pop. :lol:

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/05/0...t-switches

[Grieve]

As for apple, Dude, fall of 2014?? A digger screen iphone 6 in 2q 2014?? A year Out?? I heard that and thought to my self.... Someone needs to be fired last week. It sounded like they got together 2 hours before earnings and made ship up.

Innovated products are coming in a year and a half..... The toast is burning.

That's new products THIS fall and all through 2014, not fall of 2014.

I agree Apple underestimated the demand for big phones, especially abroad. I personally don't want a 6" phone, but it seems plenty of other people do. Next year seems a long time, but 2 years ago we were having the conversation that Apple was going to crash and burn because they didn't have LTE or NFC. Two years later they have record sales and US marketshare. I think they will be fine. Lets see what the 5S has.

[Slamz]

Yeah, with bluetooth headsets it doesn't matter how big your phone is except for how easy it is to carry around with you. Bigger screens make it more practical to use the internet, watch a movie or whatnot. I don't know that I want a phone larger than my pocket but "pocket sized" can still be a pretty big screen.

[Grieve]

Why would you need Bluetooth when using a phablet makes you look so cool?

   

[Jakensama]

That doesnt work considering the amount of gawking douchebags I see trying to take photos with their Ipads on wall street.

At least Siri was a flop, that would have been annoying as sin if it caught on.

[Breand]

I use Siri all the time for directions and for calls while driving.

[Grieve]

I generally prefer fundamental analysis to technicals, but we are at a whole bunch of very big technical areas for AAPL.

if you look at the 1Y chart on Yahoo finance, and add in the 50 and 100 day moving averages, we are about to hit two big milestones (IF we break 463 today). First, the stock price will cross the 100 day SMA for the first time since October. Second, the sequence of lower lows and lower highs we've had since September (look at the descending peaks and troughs) will be broken.

That would be very significant, and would cause a lot of buyers to jump in. Stock could really take off, even though its already up $70 in a couple of weeks. Go Apple!