Apple

[Vanraw]

Oh I know iphone isn't going anywhere. This is about market expectations and growth. All Im saying is iTV isn't going to be the "huge" impact to revenue. Think about how small 1 billion in revenue a year would be compared to the iphone revenue. All I'm saying is its not going to offset a slow down.

I do agree that China is the only answer that I can see in which Apple would sustain the markets unrealistic growth expectations. So that's the bet for Cook.

[Grieve]

Over 50 million smart TVs were sold in 2012, up 100% from 2011. Supposed to hit 220m per year in 2017. That's JUST smart (Internet) TVs, not TVs in general.

Say Apple gets 25% up that market, which certainly isn't out the question, considering what they did with MP3 players, phones, and tablets. Say the ASP is $2000 a unit. That would have been $25b in revenue last year, and $110b by 2017. Hardly insignificant. Even if they sell for $999 each, that's $55b by 2017.

Bear in mind Samsung's high end smart TVs sell for as much as $3500 on Amazon for a 65" model...and that's down from $4800 MSRP. They also have a 75" model on Amazon for $9000. None of these are even 4k resolution, which the iTV may well be.

Oh, and look at this:

http://business.time.com/2012/08/01/tv-p...osts-more/

Overall, though, the average amount consumers paid for a new TV has risen—from $1,190 in the first quarter of 2012, to $1,224 in Q2.

And smart TVs are pricey, costing an average of $1,907 in June, which is down from May ($2,015), but up sharply compared to the average smart TV sold in June 2011 ($1,724).

That makes me think Apple may end charging more like $2500 or $3000, with their usual premium for quality. Cha-Ching!

[Breand]

That makes me think Apple may end charging more like $2500 or $3000, with their usual premium for consumer gullibility. Cha-Ching!

fixed

[Vanraw]

There are 302 million TV's in America. So that's and average of 3 per household if we have 100 million households.

How often do people buy TV's? I think Im pretty average. My newest TV witch is internet smart (Netflix etc) is 3 years old. I don't have any plans to buy a new one unless one of them breaks.

The numbers don't add up. TV's are not replaced every 2 years.

[Grieve]

This is worldwide. Everyone wants a TV (or several). My numbers were from industry analysts.

Just look at the result Samsung just announced to see how many zillions of smart TVs they're selling...

Here's a good article about the number of households and TVs in the world:

http://www.brightsideofnews.com/news/201...ology.aspx

There are 480m households in the West, but 1.28 BILLION in emerging markets. There are 670m TVs in the west, and 970m in emerging markets. Obviously a lot of these can't afford a 2k TV, but it certainly makes the numbers I posted before look reasonable. Especially with multiple TVs in many houses.

[grizzle]

Apps may be an important purchase point for phones or tablets, but if a company thinks they are going to take over the HD TV market pushing apps over picture quality is crazy.

Most people who buy expensive televisions buy them based upon very high quality images, and these days that comes from Panasonic, Samsung, Sony, LG, etc. Sure, there are plenty of iFanbois who will throw their money away on an Apple iTV, but that's about it. I wouldn't buy a TV manufactured by Apple, just like I wouldn't buy one manufactured by Microsoft.

People want quality imagery from their television first, apps are simply a nice-to-have convenient second. And what the TV doesn't provide, a Roku box, Xbox, PS2, or whathaveyou, can easily provide.

I honestly believe the iTV will be a big flop for Apple.

[Grieve]

Why on earth would you assume they will have lower picture quality? Apple is the company that has been pushing every industry they are in forward in screen quality and clarity. Retina iPhones, iPads, and MacBooks were all light years ahead of everyone else when they came out, and although Samsung and co are ratcheting up the pixel density now, apple's screens are still considered the best quality.

I'd be very surprised is the iTV isn't considered the highest quality screen available when it comes out, especially if they are the first to bring 4k to a mass market.

[Vanraw]

Apps may be an important purchase point for phones or tablets, but if a company thinks they are going to take over the HD TV market pushing apps over picture quality is crazy.
.

No no Griz, Apple is going to wave its wand and get 25% of the market.

[Jakensama]

apple's screens are still considered the best quality.

Ipad mini resolution: 1024x768, 163 ppi
Nexus 7 resolution: 1200x800, 216 ppi

Yeah, cutting edge (and you pay a premium for shittier quality and slower processing!)

[Grieve]

Aaannndd...Amazon misses on the top and bottom line, guides outlook for next Q down from consensus, and...the stock jump 8%.

[Breand]

I wanted to hug Amazon the other day. Anyone else get the email where they are crediting you with the MP3s of any CD you had bought with them in the past? There was stuff I bought 15 years ago on there!

[Jakensama]

Haha I think the last CD i bought was in 1998 or 1999..

[Breand]

One of them was a Ned's Atomic Dustbin CD. That shit was ANCIENT, heh.

[Vanraw]

You guys are pups. I recall buying a new stereo system and it came with a CD player. I asked the sales person, Why they hell I would want that? On the way home I stopped at the "record" store, walked way in the back of the store, past isle after isle of "albums", and looked through the 20 selections of CD's. I found Pink Floyd Dark side of the moon.

Haven't bought a Album since (though I have a wall full and still have a turntable).

[Vanraw]

Ok on to Apple. I am thinking this is a real good place to jump in for a solid targeted 10% gain. Thoughts?

[Grieve]

Listen to the bears and they'll say that Apple will fall to $400. Listen to the bulls and they'll say back to $700 this year. Take your pick.

I don't think much will happen to the stock price right now until either:

a) There is a major product announcement (or juicy rumor), or
b) Next earnings announcement in April

I don't think there will be iTV announcement until late this year (if this year at all). There will probably be a new iPad or iPad mini announcement fairly soon (next few months). Budget iPhone for 3rd world...who knows? It's harder to hide this stuff these days, because there are so many leaks in the supply chain. Probably iPhone 5S this summer and iPad 5 in the fall.

A China Mobile deal (possibly in conjunction with a budget iPhone) would definitely juice the stock.

[Vanraw]

Yea, I'm thinking in 2 terms. First, no major product announcements except versions of existing. Perhaps a China thing. Second, no bad news and still rock solid revenue and profit, just no massive growth.

Short term, I don't see 400, which is why a 50 to 100 gain seems likely to me. 10 to 20 percent is a good trade.

Long term, apple needs to buy something. Holding 100 billion just makes them a bank.

[Grieve]

Most of that money is abroad. Without a tax holiday, they won't bring it back home. Even if they did, I doubt there would be a massive purchase. They always buy small companies.

[Grieve]

Short term, I don't see 400, which is why a 50 to 100 gain seems likely to me. 10 to 20 percent is a good trade.

Hope you got in on Monday - nice jump from $442 (near close on Monday) to $475 already. Plus the dividend if you got in before yesterday.

[Vanraw]

I did. Thinking a target of 550.

[Grieve]

Looks like an iWatch is confirmed to be on the way. Stuff in the rumor sites don't mean much, but once it's in the NYT and WSJ, that usually means it's leaked info.

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/10...rt_mc_body

iWatch, iTV, iCar...plenty in the pipeline...

[Slamz]

iWatch seems silly unless it does something amazing.

Everyone already has a cellphone which does whatever this watch is going to do, and more, which is why they all stopped wearing watches years ago.

[Grieve]

I don't want to pull my phone out of my pocket every time I get text message, or reminder, or alert, or even a call. I'd rather just glance at my wrist and see if its something/someone I care about at that moment. Or you could use it for something simple like getting directions while you are walking around.

It's not that different from the idea of glasses. Wearable computing is the future, no doubt about it, and I can see cellphones being a thing of the past in 10 or 20 years. That's why Google and Apple and I'm sure others are trying to get ahead of the curve.

Everyone already has a cellphone which does whatever this watch is going to do, and more, which is why they all stopped wearing watches years ago.

Everyone had a desktop until laptops came along. Everyone had a laptop until tablets came along. New technologies replace old ones.

[Jakensama]

You can put your smartphone in your suit pocket, an iwatch is going to look pretty shitty if you are dressed like a fucking adult.

[Slamz]

Everyone had a desktop until laptops came along. Everyone had a laptop until tablets came along. New technologies replace old ones.

I'm pretty sure a 1" screen isn't going to replace a 3"+ screen. Cellphones have been getting bigger, not smaller. New technology only replaces old when it's an improvement.