My short optimistic / Long Pessimistic view.

[Vanraw]

The market is doing odd things. I'm becoming very skittish on the long term outlook. Short term (6 months or so) I think we could see above 13k on the DOW. But, when we do, I think we are going to be in for one of 2 things. A long flat market with little bumps and valley's, or another large correction, or both.

When you go back and look at other periods of major market crashes, as well as bubble like increases, you see similar trends. Meaning a rise to previous crash levels and then a long period of flat bouncing, followed by a fast and dramatic boost, and then a major correction / crash. Seems to be a 8 to 10 yearish cycle, but seem slike they are happening faster.

This is all subjective, but unless something significant happens, I am looking at going down to like 20% equity when we hit mid 13k on the dow.

[Breand]

you can bet on it. This chart is all you need:



Never in history has the Fed kept the lending rate at near zero for so long. You simply can't do that without creating a bubble and a subsequent crash. And for the same reason why it will be a lot quicker in coming this time.

Also, while the S&P YTD looks nice, when you price the devaluation of the dollar in, it is actually slightly down on the YTD:

[Grieve]

I was getting worried about the market (and my option spreads) until the total freaking tech blowout over the last 24 hours. Saved my butt on some of my options, including Intel (up 8.21%), FFIV (up 20.79%), AAPL (up 4.49%), EMC (up 5.84%) and VMW (up 14.29%).

If the employment numbers are good tomorrow, should be a great day.

Longer term, I think we still end the year up at least 10%.

[Zephyrs]

I am pretty certain there will be a market crash in the next year or two... the only question is how soon and what will trigger it.