07-07-2009, 07:57 PM
You may be right. Kinda wishing I saw this at the 9k level. Here are a couple interesting charts. The first one shows the Internet bubble burst.
At May 2001 we are sitting around 11500, September / October we crash to somewhere close to 8300. We see a post crash rally to 10k and then in July 2002 boom down to 8000.
Fast forward to day. May 2008 we are at 13000, September / Octopber we crash to 8000. This time we dont see as powerful of a rally, crashing to below 7000 but then rallying back to almost 9k. then July we start to see the sell offs. Question is will it drop at the same levels as 2002? If so we will see 6k again.
I think the issue right now is that wall street is impatient, Just like it was in 2002. Earnings season isnt going to show any massive increases. There is in general, a lack of good news. In May there was "news not as bad as thought" but that wont carry water for very long.
And then you have the oil speculators getting totally burned, as they were trying to drive the price up yet again. This has a lot to do with current correction because much of the commodities market is in mutual funds and ETF's now.
Add to that that the banks are still holding on the money, because they still have a bunch of mortgages that are a massive jeopardy. Thanks dont look good until 4th qtr. IMHO
My prediction is low 7k correction. And we wont see anything positive unto a late October rally.
At May 2001 we are sitting around 11500, September / October we crash to somewhere close to 8300. We see a post crash rally to 10k and then in July 2002 boom down to 8000.
Fast forward to day. May 2008 we are at 13000, September / Octopber we crash to 8000. This time we dont see as powerful of a rally, crashing to below 7000 but then rallying back to almost 9k. then July we start to see the sell offs. Question is will it drop at the same levels as 2002? If so we will see 6k again.
I think the issue right now is that wall street is impatient, Just like it was in 2002. Earnings season isnt going to show any massive increases. There is in general, a lack of good news. In May there was "news not as bad as thought" but that wont carry water for very long.
And then you have the oil speculators getting totally burned, as they were trying to drive the price up yet again. This has a lot to do with current correction because much of the commodities market is in mutual funds and ETF's now.
Add to that that the banks are still holding on the money, because they still have a bunch of mortgages that are a massive jeopardy. Thanks dont look good until 4th qtr. IMHO
My prediction is low 7k correction. And we wont see anything positive unto a late October rally.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
![[Image: maull2.gif]](http://bengtel.com/maull2.gif)
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi