04-23-2013, 10:10 AM
To take a Grieve comment on the Netflix thread into the Apple thread, here's why I don't think Apple is comparable to Netflix in terms of market fluctuations:
Netflix has no direct competitors and their sales are driven by having a good, pretty unique product. Their dive came from analysts just plain not understanding the market and making bad comparisons to companies that aren't really competing with Netflix for customers (like Amazon). If you want to cancel cable or just plain have a good selection of things to watch for cheap, you get Netflix. No question about it.
Apple is driven too much by "coolness" -- that is, they have plenty of actual market competition; they aren't offering anything particularly new or unique anymore -- and I think it actually hurt their ability to maintain their "cool" image when companies like Microsoft and IBM stopped being relevant to the average consumer. Basically Apple was cool when they were the little guy fighting the big, evil Microsoft. Fighting the big, evil HTC or Samsung just isn't going to fly and I actually think they've hurt their public image (and their financial image) by building up this enormous pile of cash. Image-wise, Apple has let themselves become the overly rich fat-cats that they used to benefit from fighting. And it suggests that they just don't have a plan. Amazon runs on thin margins because I think Amazon always has a plan. They're always doing something. Netflix is always expanding their offerings, always expanding their coverage area. Apple is raking in cash and doing nothing with it.
The only real question in my mind about Apple is that since they DO have so much money, they COULD do something stunningly amazing and that could happen at any time. Maybe they can do something awesome with this new battery technology I've been hearing about.
Really, though, I think it's a testament to Apple's lack of vision that we all still own Windows (for gaming). I'm sure that for a scant billion dollars, pocket change for them, Apple could revamp their operating system to develop whatever APIs and create whatever incentives are necessary to attract developers to the Mac platform and bring about the finale of Microsoft Windows as a home OS but they don't seem interested.
Hell, for 2 billion they could surely create a bunch of Mac-only super-awesome MMORPGs, FPSs, RTSs, and whatever else anyone wanted and eat the losses for a year or two until everyone said "fuck Windows, I'm outta here" and converted to Mac.
In short, the only thing more stunning than Apple's profits is their lack of clue for what to do with it all. I think it's actually beyond baffling what Apple has been doing for the last couple of years. Netflix and Amazon stock soar beyond reality because people see them going places, maybe great places. Apple goes the other way because their future is, at best, a huge questionmark. They aren't going in any obvious direction. Like Microsoft, they've just become a lump on a log.
Netflix has no direct competitors and their sales are driven by having a good, pretty unique product. Their dive came from analysts just plain not understanding the market and making bad comparisons to companies that aren't really competing with Netflix for customers (like Amazon). If you want to cancel cable or just plain have a good selection of things to watch for cheap, you get Netflix. No question about it.
Apple is driven too much by "coolness" -- that is, they have plenty of actual market competition; they aren't offering anything particularly new or unique anymore -- and I think it actually hurt their ability to maintain their "cool" image when companies like Microsoft and IBM stopped being relevant to the average consumer. Basically Apple was cool when they were the little guy fighting the big, evil Microsoft. Fighting the big, evil HTC or Samsung just isn't going to fly and I actually think they've hurt their public image (and their financial image) by building up this enormous pile of cash. Image-wise, Apple has let themselves become the overly rich fat-cats that they used to benefit from fighting. And it suggests that they just don't have a plan. Amazon runs on thin margins because I think Amazon always has a plan. They're always doing something. Netflix is always expanding their offerings, always expanding their coverage area. Apple is raking in cash and doing nothing with it.
The only real question in my mind about Apple is that since they DO have so much money, they COULD do something stunningly amazing and that could happen at any time. Maybe they can do something awesome with this new battery technology I've been hearing about.
Really, though, I think it's a testament to Apple's lack of vision that we all still own Windows (for gaming). I'm sure that for a scant billion dollars, pocket change for them, Apple could revamp their operating system to develop whatever APIs and create whatever incentives are necessary to attract developers to the Mac platform and bring about the finale of Microsoft Windows as a home OS but they don't seem interested.
Hell, for 2 billion they could surely create a bunch of Mac-only super-awesome MMORPGs, FPSs, RTSs, and whatever else anyone wanted and eat the losses for a year or two until everyone said "fuck Windows, I'm outta here" and converted to Mac.
In short, the only thing more stunning than Apple's profits is their lack of clue for what to do with it all. I think it's actually beyond baffling what Apple has been doing for the last couple of years. Netflix and Amazon stock soar beyond reality because people see them going places, maybe great places. Apple goes the other way because their future is, at best, a huge questionmark. They aren't going in any obvious direction. Like Microsoft, they've just become a lump on a log.