Apple

[Vanraw]

since Apple has never announced anything about what it will be, when it will be, or even if it will be. Just because online prognosticators keep being wrong doesn't mean a thing.

You don't see the Irony here? The speculators on a iTV release are as wrong as the speculators that say its going to be some sort of awe inspiring TV revolution. While the naysayers are saying.... missed another year, the Fanboys are saying, "This is going to be huge!!!"

Based on what facts is Apple TV going to be huge?

I see only one way apple TV would generate anything that would offset 54 billion a quarter. If the iTV was a full blown out MAC with a 50inch screen selling for $800 to $1000. That would be a game changer.

I want you to think about this. If there is 100 million house holds in America and every single house hold bought a Apple TV for $2000, that would be 200 billion total revenue. Lets say its a set top box for $500, and every single household bought one, that would be 50 billion revenue. We all know there is no way in hell every household in America will buy one. And thirst for things like Netflix in Europe and such is not like America. The main market will be here. TV's are not bought ever 2 years and every household isn't going to buy an Apple. So I fail to see how a apple TV in any fashion would dent 54 billion a quarter on a long term basis.

Could it be a couple billion revenue stream? yes. But that is not the market expectations.

Don't get me wrong. Apple numbers are still unreal. I think part of the problem here is people trade on stock price and not fundamentals. They see this massive ramp up in stock and sell at the first negative news because they view it as a bubble. Apple numbers are odd. There almost too good. I feel like they should be a new category of stock like a Tech RIET. Meaning at some point the only reason to won the stock is profit sharing dividends.

To be clear also, Im looking at buying into apple here for some medium term gains. Your spreads are probably a good bet. Not that the stock will hit 690 but mid 500 is likely.

I think part of my problem with Apple is that their market cap is so big now, they should be a thinking like a tech conglomerate and not a small start up. If I was running Apple I would be aggressively looking at buying / merging with very large companies that diversify revenue and products. Perhaps they should buy someone like Sharp to branch out into other manufacturing sectors. Or buy a services company that would leverage them into the enterprise as opposed to the consumer. The enterprise market is something Apple has not done a good job on. If I saw some sort of movement to diversify product and revenue, I would buy into Apple and wait for the $1000 mark. But right now its only one product.




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