01-24-2013, 11:56 PM
Amazon is the online retail king, with a secure position that seems unlikely to be upset in any foreseeable future. It just doesn't seem feasible for a competitor to rise up and threaten Amazon's position. There's technical issues, logistics issues and I think a general trust of Amazon as a safe, reliable retailer that will make them hard to uproot by anyone.
Apple I see as being in a position that's far more tenuous. They can, and one day probably will, lose half their sales overnight as the public sense of what's cool simply shifts to some other company. There's nothing about Apple that makes them untouchable in their bailiwick, as Amazon and Netflix basically are in theirs.
Short term, I see Amazon as risky because their stock is inflated. Long term, they're probably safer than US government bonds. Apple is the other way around. Short term I think they can make big wins. Long term all it's going to take is one stiff breeze to knock them over. Their real claim to fame is not technical superiority but rather, they deliver a slick product with great marketing and a well designed user-interface. Nothing stops some other company from doing all of that better. Could happen tomorrow or it may not happen for 10 years but one day it'll happen and that will be a bad day to be holding Apple.
Apple I see as being in a position that's far more tenuous. They can, and one day probably will, lose half their sales overnight as the public sense of what's cool simply shifts to some other company. There's nothing about Apple that makes them untouchable in their bailiwick, as Amazon and Netflix basically are in theirs.
Short term, I see Amazon as risky because their stock is inflated. Long term, they're probably safer than US government bonds. Apple is the other way around. Short term I think they can make big wins. Long term all it's going to take is one stiff breeze to knock them over. Their real claim to fame is not technical superiority but rather, they deliver a slick product with great marketing and a well designed user-interface. Nothing stops some other company from doing all of that better. Could happen tomorrow or it may not happen for 10 years but one day it'll happen and that will be a bad day to be holding Apple.