11-09-2012, 12:29 PM
yea Im holding. Its up a bit. But I really thought after the first drop after the election it would have bounced. I'm certainly looking at playing the "cliff" volatility. My take is they will come out and say, "we can work together". and then it will go back and forth until the last minute when they extend the same shit we have now for 3 to 6 months.
Keep in mind this is a lame duck congress. Not that much is changing, but they all seem to vacation for 3 months now.
A couple of things Im looking at beside volatility.
1. Defense / military stocks should be a short play no matter what. Might be too late. Bottom line there is no way we are going to get through this budget process without significant cuts in defense spending.
2. Energy and Financial stocks are going to be bouncing around as people get on stump speeches.
3. Housing plays as tax code restructuring becomes the conversation. If they remove or hint more on the removal of mortgage interest deductions, it will have a direct impact. If they remove the deduction making over 250k, no big deal. If they remove it all for everyone, it will be big drop in home construction, and financials.
Keep in mind this is a lame duck congress. Not that much is changing, but they all seem to vacation for 3 months now.
A couple of things Im looking at beside volatility.
1. Defense / military stocks should be a short play no matter what. Might be too late. Bottom line there is no way we are going to get through this budget process without significant cuts in defense spending.
2. Energy and Financial stocks are going to be bouncing around as people get on stump speeches.
3. Housing plays as tax code restructuring becomes the conversation. If they remove or hint more on the removal of mortgage interest deductions, it will have a direct impact. If they remove the deduction making over 250k, no big deal. If they remove it all for everyone, it will be big drop in home construction, and financials.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
