01-10-2012, 05:37 PM
Some more thoughts moving around in my head.
The market (dow) right now is close to the post 2008 crash highs of 12,800ish (currently hitting above the 12,500 mark. Prior to 2008 the high (and this is a all time high) was slightly above the 14,000 mark.
I believe that the market will not hit anywhere close to the 14k level in the near future. Meaning that I would be very surprised if we saw 14k in 2012. However, if you look at the economy (which isn't great), its hard for me to justify the current levels of the market. Comparing 2007 economy where the market hit 14k (only 1500 points below what it is now) to the economy today, doesn't make sense.
So imagine if you will, the unemployment level dipps to 4 or 5%, and the corporate earnings / revenue numbers look great, housiong starts return to some level of normalcy and even tax revenues are looking good so that America restores its AAA rating. How high would the market go up from here? Surely a hell of allot more then 1500 points.
Now I dont think the unemployment or tax revenues are going to turn on a dime. The main point or perception I have is that that if a 14000 DOW is the correct level of a 2007 economy, then 12,500 or even 12,800 is way to high priced today. Something does not make sense.
More Ramblings. I think 14k in 2007 was a peak and over priced as well. Which proved correct as 2008 crash showed.
I guess I'm slowly talking myself into a bear stance?????
One other rambling. Its earnings season again. From a financials perspective, JPMorgan Chase is on Friday, with Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo to follow next week. My gut is that JPMorgan will be good, but BoA and Citi will not.
I think I may jump into a TZA or even FAZ (The triple bear TZA of financials) in the coming day's.
The market (dow) right now is close to the post 2008 crash highs of 12,800ish (currently hitting above the 12,500 mark. Prior to 2008 the high (and this is a all time high) was slightly above the 14,000 mark.
I believe that the market will not hit anywhere close to the 14k level in the near future. Meaning that I would be very surprised if we saw 14k in 2012. However, if you look at the economy (which isn't great), its hard for me to justify the current levels of the market. Comparing 2007 economy where the market hit 14k (only 1500 points below what it is now) to the economy today, doesn't make sense.
So imagine if you will, the unemployment level dipps to 4 or 5%, and the corporate earnings / revenue numbers look great, housiong starts return to some level of normalcy and even tax revenues are looking good so that America restores its AAA rating. How high would the market go up from here? Surely a hell of allot more then 1500 points.
Now I dont think the unemployment or tax revenues are going to turn on a dime. The main point or perception I have is that that if a 14000 DOW is the correct level of a 2007 economy, then 12,500 or even 12,800 is way to high priced today. Something does not make sense.
More Ramblings. I think 14k in 2007 was a peak and over priced as well. Which proved correct as 2008 crash showed.
I guess I'm slowly talking myself into a bear stance?????
One other rambling. Its earnings season again. From a financials perspective, JPMorgan Chase is on Friday, with Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo to follow next week. My gut is that JPMorgan will be good, but BoA and Citi will not.
I think I may jump into a TZA or even FAZ (The triple bear TZA of financials) in the coming day's.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
![[Image: maull2.gif]](http://bengtel.com/maull2.gif)
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi